The Most Affordable and Least Disaster Prone Places to Live

Providence, Rhode Island, Detroit, Michigan and Hartford, Connecticut are the least disaster-prone metro areas in the country, according to a new study released by Redfin. Redfin has positioned itself as “the technology-powered real estate brokerage.” In a new report, Redfin rated the 50 biggest metro areas according to their relative frequency of five major types of natural disasters—earthquakes, fires, floods, tornadoes, and hurricanes—using a new metric called the “Natural Disaster Hazard Score.”

Each of the five areas are measured on a scale of one to 100, where 100 is the most dangerous metro area for the category and one is the least hazardous. The overall Natural Disaster Hazard Score is an average of the five components’ frequencies.

Metros with low Natural Disaster Hazard Score ratings, ironically, tend to have relatively affordable housing markets. Nine of the 10 least hazardous metro areas have median home prices below the $287,400 national median. Salt Lake City is the exception, ranking as the eighth-least hazard-prone metro area with a Natural Disaster Hazard Score of 16 and a median home price of $320,000.

Equally ironic is the fact that the most disaster-prone metros, including Washington, D.C. (52), Los Angeles (52) and New York (41), have home prices well above the national median. These three areas also tend to be near the top of Redfin’s list of origins common among online home-searchers looking to relocate to more affordable, inland housing markets, like Las Vegas, which ranks fourth among the safest-rated metros. These searches could be a harbinger of things to come in these markets.

“When you buy a home you are paying for more than just the house,” said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. “There could be hidden costs associated with natural disasters. If a natural disaster strikes, you may have to pay for damage to your home or for the cost of evacuating your family. And even during times of calm, you may still need to pay for insurance against floods, fire, or earthquakes. Some homes in more hazardous areas might seem more affordable if you are just looking at the sticker price, but they may end up costing more when risks related to natural disasters are factored in.”

In addition to high home prices in cities like Washington, D.C., Los Angeles and New York, the possibility of natural disasters may be another factor driving homebuyers away from the coasts. When hurricanes, fires, earthquakes and floods are factored into the equation, the affordable inland metros are even more attractive destinations.

Below is a ranking of the 50 largest metro areas from least-to-most hazard-prone, according to Redfin’s Natural Disaster Hazard Score:

Rank	Metro Area	Natural Disaster Hazard Score	Median Home Price (Feb. 2019)	Earthquakes	Fires	Floods	Tornadoes	Hurricanes
1	Providence, RI	9	$255,000	0	0	0	0	44
2	Detroit, MI	10	$125,000	0	0	41	0	7
3	Hartford, CT	11	$196,000	0	0	12	0	44
4	Las Vegas, NV	12	$275,000	0	41	12	0	7
5	Milwaukee, WI	14	$190,000	0	0	36	26	7
6	Indianapolis, IN	14	$170,000	0	0	18	46	7
7	Buffalo, NY	15	$145,000	0	24	22	0	28
8	Salt Lake City, UT	16	$320,000	0	32	22	26	0
9	Raleigh, NC	16	$286,000	0	0	0	26	56
10	Nashville, TN	16	$279,000	0	0	29	46	7
11	Baltimore, MD	18	$250,000	0	0	47	0	44
12	Denver, CO	20	$400,000	0	48	29	26	0
13	Columbus, OH	23	$195,000	0	0	29	78	7
14	Cleveland, OH	23	$139,000	0	0	29	60	28
15	Phoenix, AZ	24	$267,000	0	48	63	0	7
16	Cincinnati, OH	24	$177,000	0	0	68	46	7
17	Boston, MA	24	$452,000	0	24	41	0	56
18	San Jose, CA	25	$1,040,000	58	37	22	0	7
19	San Diego, CA	25	$561,000	0	70	51	0	7
20	Louisville, KY	26	$182,000	0	0	75	46	7
21	Charlotte, NC	27	$235,000	0	0	22	46	65
22	Orlando, FL	27	$249,000	0	45	5	26	60
23	Pittsburgh, PA	28	$155,000	0	0	58	46	35
24	Richmond, VA	28	$232,000	58	0	18	0	65
25	San Francisco, CA	30	$1,280,000	58	32	51	0	7
26	Atlanta, GA	30	$235,000	0	0	5	100	44
27	Jacksonville, FL	30	$222,000	0	45	5	26	74
28	Tampa, FL	30	$225,000	0	43	5	26	78
29	Chicago, IL	30	$230,000	0	0	75	70	7
30	Virginia Beach, VA	30	$220,000	0	0	12	46	94
31	Miami, FL	30	$295,000	0	32	5	26	90
32	Sacramento, CA	31	$385,000	58	51	36	0	7
33	Seattle, WA	33	$547,000	81	0	83	0	0
34	Memphis, TN	33	$166,000	0	0	58	78	28
35	Philadelphia, PA	33	$190,000	0	29	68	0	69
36	St. Louis, MO	33	$165,000	0	0	100	60	7
37	Birmingham, AL	34	$189,000	0	32	29	60	50
38	San Antonio, TX	34	$218,000	0	56	41	0	74
39	Kansas City, MO	35	$200,000	0	0	75	70	28
40	Oklahoma City, OK	37	$174,000	0	67	51	60	7
41	Dallas, TX	37	$285,000	0	63	47	26	50
42	Portland, OR	37	$390,000	81	37	68	0	0
43	New Orleans, LA	39	$210,000	0	0	68	26	100
44	Minneapolis, MN	40	$265,000	0	24	91	78	7
45	Houston, TX	41	$232,000	0	51	68	26	60
46	Austin, TX	41	$296,000	0	73	58	26	50
47	New York, NY	41	$380,000	0	37	75	26	69
48	Riverside, CA	47	$366,000	58	96	75	0	7
49	Los Angeles, CA	52	$600,000	100	100	51	0	7
50	Washington, D.C.	52	$380,000	58	29	63	26	82

To view the full report, complete with methodology and an interactive map, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/blog/natural-disaster-hazard-score-by-metro-area.

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